BTC analysis: what can invalidate the short-term bear scenario for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s price is showing strong momentum as it rebounds above $ 33,000 after a relatively large correction on Jan. 12.
The general market sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive. But there is an important point of invalidation to the bearish scenario for BTC.
Bitcoin has to recapture $ 36,000
If BTC is looking to hit an all-time high in the foreseeable future, it is crucial that BTC stay above $ 36,000.
Traders have emphasized that they would rather buy much lower or above $ 36,000 when analyzing the current market landscape.
Scott Melker, a crypto trader, explains:
“When the price falls again, this is what I’ll be looking for. Still on track, but would rather see it flip the EQ on that channel and keep going up without the dip. “
However, if Bitcoin Bank app price rejects the $ 35,000- $ 36,000 resistance area, then another major pullback could occur.
The bitcoin price chart with one possible scenario. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com, Scott Melker
In the short term, there are two major levels for Bitcoin: $ 33,000 and $ 36,000. Exceeding $ 36,000 would likely test the record high again.
Remaining above $ 33,000 would mean it has solidified as macro support area, likely leading to yet another BTC rally.
There are Whale Cluster support areas between $ 30,000 and $ 33,000, which makes them strong levels of support.
Whale clusters form when whales buy bitcoin and don’t move. This behavior signals that whales are accumulating BTC. Therefore, if BTC falls to the price level at which they bought it, the more likely the whales will bid again and expand their positions by buying more Bitcoin.
It’s similar to MicroStrategy’s most recent $ 10 million Bitcoin buy order from a few hours ago. Whales with a long-term strategy in mind are likely to continue building their position with a 2-3 year view of the market.
Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy:
“MicroStrategy purchased approximately 314 bitcoins for $ 10.0 million in cash, in accordance with the Treasury Reserve Policy, at an average price of approximately $ 31,808 per bitcoin. We now hold around 70,784 bitcoins. “
Additionally, Grayscale continues to buy larger numbers of Bitcoin each week, which will remain a major catalyst for Bitcoin for the foreseeable future.
Some traders believe that Bitcoin and Ethereum could hit new all-time highs only to see a major correction afterwards.
Nik Yaremchuk, a crypto trader and on-chain analyst, believes ETH could potentially hit $ 1,600 and then correct. He writes:
“Very often, $ ETH predicts market movements faster than the $ BTC chart shows. Right now it looks like we’re going to hit $ 46k and $ 1.6k, after which I expect a big drop. I don’t want to make long-term predictions, it looks like this now. “
That could mean Bitcoin could see a deeper correction at around $ 46,000, slightly above its current all-time high of $ 42,000.